MTR indicator sell signal by my calculations 2118.92 would have been the exit signal. 4% from 2207.21 the close on Oct 20. Also your signal to reverse today is 2287.15 well above 5% from 2142.15. I must be missing something, could you help me out with an explanation? Thanks for the web site and for any comments. GG

GG you are correct the forecast is 5% up from the close. The model on this site is not the pure 4% model. The original 4% model would have fired many signals over the past 6 months. The model on this site takes many factors to cause a buy or sell.

The forecast runs through a loop ticking the index up dollar by dollar while running the signal logic. By the time it does it fire could be 5% up from here to force all the factors to fire as well, or if the market really tanked it may have to go up 10% on the next day to issue a buy. As time passes and the market gyrates the percent up to fire a signal would change and you may see if the market closes up 1% a buy signal would be fired.

Thank you for your question. Please reply if anything in this post needs to be clarified..

Bill,

There are a few things you can do to allow AMIBroker to help figure out some settings. If you use the Optimization Engine in AMIBroker it can help you to tweak the settings.

For Example: Adding moving average tests to the 4% model.  AMIBroker will run through years of data issuing buys and sells and in the end it will show you ranked best to worst what parameters to use. Then when it is done it will show you the best performing moving averages to add to the formula. I have V5.20 of AMIBroker. If you can get that version for a free upgrade the optimization engine is super fast.

The 4% model I posted on the AMIBroker site did not have any moving average logic. You can use the code below to allow AMIBroker to optimize what moving average to use. You will see once you run this through the 4% model signals will improve and there will be fewer trades. Once you go through this process start thinking about other items that can be optimized such as the 4% change should it be 3.5%, 3.9%.....??  let AMIBroker figure it out by using the optimization engine.   This will get you close to how the model works on MTR except I left out a few things that I do not want to disclose.

Here is the code you can use for Moving Avg Optimization. Add the code below to your Buy / Sell parameters.  Not sure if you have run the AMIBroker Optimizer before... if not look at the Optimizer help in AMIBroker it takes you though the process step by step.

MAB = Optimize( "MAB", 15, 5, 55, 1 );
MAS = Optimize( "MAS", 15, 5, 55, 1 );

//Add to xBuy
And  C >MA(C, MAB);

//Add to xSell
Sell = C < MA(C,MAS);

Let me know if you need any help setting it up or to review the code.

Thanks,
Patrick

I  have  tried the triple screen for a long time. I have found that it causes me to second guess myself, plus starting on  the weekly screen to filter and enter a trade causes a person to enter a trade very late.

It speaks volumes why Elder now spends all of his time on his SpikeTrade website charging people $80.00 a month for membership.